(CNN) By Manav Tanneeru

– Rising oil and gas prices have lawmakers and consumers scrambling for solutions, but it is unclear whether anything can be done to lower energy costs in the short term, experts say.

A confluence of factors, from supply and demand to speculation and a weakened dollar, are driving gas prices higher.

The price of oil has doubled over the past year. A barrel of crude oil cost about $65 in June 2007; it is currently hovering around $130 a barrel.

Prices have skyrocketed as a result, with some American consumers paying more than $4 a gallon. The national average is $3.95 per gallon, according to a AAA survey published May 29. A year ago, the national average was about $3.20.

Observers say several factors, domestic and global, are responsible for the price increases.

Although demand is falling in places like the United States and Europe because of high prices, it is surging in emerging markets like China and India.

Meanwhile, concerns are rising that supply — battered by political instability in some oil-rich countries and a decision by others to not increase production substantially — is not keeping up with demand.

Additionally, the declining value of the dollar, the currency used by the international oil market, has made it easier for Asian and European countries to purchase oil.

Some experts say speculation may also be playing a role in the rising price of oil. Many investors look to commodities like oil to act as a buffer against inflation, which typically occurs when — as is the case now — interest rates are low and the dollar is weakened. Other experts say the effect of speculation is minimal to negligible.

Whatever the cause, federal and state lawmakers are anxiously searching for short-term relief. Their options, however, seem limited.

The gas tax holiday debate

Two presidential candidates, Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain and New York Democratic Sen. Hillary Clinton, proposed a federal gas tax holiday this year to provide some savings for American consumers.

The plan would place a moratorium on the 18.4 cent-a-gallon federal gas tax for the summer, the time of year when Americans tend to drive the most.

McCain admitted that the tax break would have a limited effect. He said it would amount to a “little bit of a break for the summer” for low-income Americans.

Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama, an Illinois senator, called the proposal a gimmick. He voted for such a tax holiday in his home state in 2000 but said it provided little benefit for consumers.

In addition to Illinois, three states — Florida, Indiana, and Georgia — have enacted gas tax holidays over the past decade. Lawmakers in several states are mulling similar cuts this year, according to published reports.

The combination of local, state and federal taxes can total more than 40 cents a gallon in some parts of the country, according to the American Petroleum Institute, a trade group that represents the American oil and natural gas industry.

Florida had a month-long gas tax holiday in August 2004. A state Department of Revenue statement announcing the end of the holiday said the state’s drivers saw a decrease of 11 cents a gallon because of the tax cut.

An Illinois government study examining that state’s suspension of motor fuel sales tax of about 7 cents a gallon in July 2000 said that although the tax holiday decreased prices at the pump, “the degree to which the reduction was passed on to motorists cannot be precisely measured.”

It is difficult to predict how much consumers would save through a gas tax holiday because of the many factors — from oil companies to retailers — that contribute to the price at the pump, experts say. Any of them along the supply chain could pocket the savings from the tax cuts.

“The idea is that if you have this tax holiday, then the 18.4 cents a gallon [federal gas tax] will all go to the consumer to be saved,” said Doug McIntyre, an analyst at the U.S. Energy Information Administration. “The question is whether the retailers would pass that all along or would try to capture some of that reduction as well.

“No one really knows.”

Short-term solutions

The debate over the gas tax holiday raises the broader question of whether there is anything the U.S. government can do to reduce the price of fuel in the short term.

“I think if anybody had a good answer, it probably would have been implemented by now,” McIntyre said.

Some lawmakers recently proposed that the government release oil from an emergency stockpile but were rebuffed by the U.S. Energy Department.

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve holds 701 million barrels of oil and is generally used to respond to supply crises. That stockpile has been used twice in U.S. history: During the first Gulf War in the early 1990s and in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

The reserve exists to deal with the “physical interruption of the flow of oil to our country,” U.S. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman said during a recent House hearing. “We don’t have that issue today.”

New deliveries to the strategic reserve, however, have been halted.

“There is very little the government can do in the very short-term, other than providing misinformation about the potential for government to act,” said Gilbert Metcalf, an economist at Tufts University.

He said that raising the price of energy may prove more beneficial. It seems counterintuitive, but the high prices could reduce demand and fundamentally alter consumer behavior, he said

“We are not going to do it by reducing the price,” he said. “It’s saying to people: ‘Don’t go buy a fuel-efficient car; we’ll just lower the price when it’s too painful.’”

“Our best bet is to wean us off oil.”

Darrell Barker says: www.kickgasatthepump.com